The world of gaming, my friends, has changed.
I realise it’s a little aggrandising to quote myself but the above quote comes from the story that Yoshifus Hayama had left his position with Sony as Executive producer on The Last Guardian and taken a job with expensive News International acquisition, Bossa. He had gone from working with one of the traditional Japanese companies, firmly entrenched in hardware and well settled in the videogame industry to a company which focusses on Facebook games.
My slightly theatrical proclamation was, of course, nothing new or surprising. If anything, it was old news, barely worthy of being rehashed. The changes to the videogame industry are something which have been happening gradually, whether we like it or not, since the beginning of the industry. They are what has led us to this point and the evolution of the industry continues in many directions. Some we like, and some we don’t.
[drop]Don’t like the populist move away from traditional handheld gaming experience toward more casual games? Stuffing your games console with peripheral services like Netflix and Vidzone superfluous to your ideal of what a games console should be? Don’t like motion controls like Kinect, Move or the Wii’s Waggle? Tough.This isn’t happening, folks. It has already happened and it has been happening since the very beginning of home gaming. The next step is probably cloud based gaming services, whether we like it or not, but it’s not an either/or proposition. All of the examples mentioned above have come in addition to traditional console experiences and in key markets the infrastructure simply isn’t ready for a cloud-only approach. There’s too much revenue still off the cloud.
Yesterday saw a rather sensationalist news story pop up around several different news sites. The Chief Product Officer at Gaikai spoke at CES in Las Vegas to say that she thought one of the current console manufacturers would “bow out” after this generation.
We can safely assume that Nanea Reeves of Gaikai is referring to home consoles as the two traditional handheld console manufacturers have both just beginning their “next generation”. So she means Nintendo, Microsoft or Sony. Let’s examine that for a moment.
Nintendo has announced the Wii U for a 2012 release. It’s already out there, with hardware presumably close to being finalised and development units likely to be with big third party partners that already announced a presence on the console. Our sources tell us that Microsoft too, although still unannounced, have new hardware almost ready and in the hands of certain key partners. It’s unlikely that we would know that and nobody would have at least heavily hinted similar information to the top brass at Gaikai. So we can deduce that Nanea Reeves thinks that Sony is not going to release a PlayStation 4.
There’s your headline, folks: Gaikai Predict Sony to Withdraw from Next Gen Console Race. It’s a shocking assertion and one which will panic a lot of Sony’s fans. Those fans who recall another recent news item where Kaz Hirai claimed that the PS4 would not be at E3 (you know, like everyone did last year with Twisted Metal?) will assign some plausibility to the Gaikai story too and everyone will flap around panicking that we’ll lose Sony from the videogame business. Thankfully, it’s utterly ridiculous. Here’s why.
Sony continues to invest more money than you can imagine into its videogames business, key studios are being acquired and development shows no signs of slowing. The PlayStation 3 has struggled to catch up with its competitors after being later to launch but the last couple of years have been a roaring success for Sony’s flagship, even accounting for the PSN hack disaster, and top executives have previously alluded to a need to get their next generation out closer to their competitor’s. Microsoft have got hardware in the pipeline and it’s very close to an announcement. Too many different sources are quietly whispering about that for it not to be true. So Sony, by their own admission, must have something close to readiness too.
Let’s consider where this story comes from – Gaikai. They are a company heavily invested in cloud gaming, ready to tackle OnLive’s more prominent public presence head on. They are, it seems, a big player in the future of cloud gaming services. With partners among the most influential videogames news outlets in the UK, perhaps they see news coverage as a perfect route to a higher public profile.
The notion that one of the current hardware giants is ready to throw in the towel certainly serves Gaikai’s cause in a number of ways. Speculation is already surfacing that this means some sort of Sony-Gaikai partnership to cloud-base and stream Sony’s next generation of software using Gaikai’s systems. That would require Sony’s software studios to stop developing for Sony hardware and jump to PC development instead. Or, to put it another way, develop games for a Microsoft platform. Now, there’s a sensationalist headline waiting to be written.
Even without the bonus of speculated partnerships, Gaikai’s assertion that the old model is dying would serve the notion that the new model is in some way winning. It isn’t, at least not yet. The notion that Gaikai and cloud gaming is having an effect on traditional giants benefits them, of course, but it also benefits all of their partners.
[drop2]There’s no doubt that “The Cloud” will have a big part to play in the next traditional generation of consoles. It’s already permeating this generation with cloud-based saves and even the propensity of update patches and DLC which ready our consciousnesses for a need to be constantly connected. Sony and Microsoft, at least, are heavily investing in it as an add on service for premium customers, at least in these limited ways.Perhaps the first thing we need to address is the notion of defined generations in modern console gaming? Certainly the user experience with a brand new Xbox 360 today is entirely different to the experience with a brand new Xbox 360 bought on launch day. The PlayStation 3’s launch day adopter would, if wrenched forward through time to look at the modern interface, recognise the XMB but they’d marvel at all it contained – and I don’t just mean the added sparkles. From a user’s perspective, putting nomenclature aside, this is already a different generation to the one that launched around six years ago.
We’re going to see new hardware soon but don’t expect everything to be totally new, either. Thanks to the thing which makes Cloud Gaming possible – the internet – we already have an evolutionary approach to how our consoles develop and although new hardware will bring new possibilities, it’s likely to come with a face which is somewhat familiar – if only because it will be peppered with the additional services we’re accustomed to. The next generation of hardware will most likely have Netflix, Hulu, Vidzone, YouTube et al. already loaded. Perhaps another type of on-console service is becoming more plausible too, one that streams games?
If there is any unholy union between traditional hardware giants and the new wave of cloud-based streamers then it is surely much more likely to be as an add-on service, available from the big player’s new hardware. Hardware which I still believe, in spite of efforts to keep the announcements pure, is very likely to be unveiled this year.
blarty
A sensationalist headline? About games? From a site so riddled with cynicism that it seeps out of every Daily Mail-esque pore?…
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Cannot for the life of me think which gaming website that is…..
kjkg
There is more than just one, but hope you aren’t referring to this site.
blarty
No, not this site.
blarty
TheSixthAxis has enough irony, good humour, and balanced opinion in general, to make it the gaming news/opinion website I check everyday, so no, I was definitely not referring to TSA
kjkg
Didn’t think so. If anyone thought that way of this site, then what site would they argue was neutral? hah I’d love to see that.
Tuffcub
Irony and slightly aluminumy as well.
Sympozium
Haha….
Eurogamer
blarty
I can neither confirm nor deny such spurious talk….
skibadee
crazy talk.
hazelam
i will never buy games on a cloud service, i’m actually starting to go off the whole digital download thing.
i just want to own the things i buy, is that too much to ask?
as far as these publishers are concerned the answer is seemingly, yes.
personally i think there’s going to be a backlash against these things sooner or later.
they’re constantly developing newer and more sophisticated methods of keeping us from our purchases, people are not going to continue to take that.
that’s my prediction.
and when these companies go under, as i expect they inevitably will, i will have no sympathy for them, it’s the people who paid them money and are left with nothing that my sympathies will be with.
KeRaSh
Actually, I think it’s the other way around. The trend to move everything to the cloud is already showing its effect. The main barriers currently are the pricing schemes of digital goods, internet bandwidth and the compressed nature of streamed images. While the UK seems to be pretty slow in the bandwidth department, other countries have reasonably fast connections and price models like OnLive’s are definitely leaning in the right direction. Faster connections will also lead to better image qualities and technology isn’t standing still just to please those who prefer physical media.
Adiemus
I know exactly what you mean, just look at vita! Yes its possible to change accounts on it. But if you have 2 trophy hunters in a household they will need to purchase the game twice digitally as it wipes the activation when you switch accounts.
If you have the physical version tho all u have to do is wipe any on card saves.
Adiemus
Bah hit submit too soon! Anyway!
It’s all because they want to control what you own and lock it to one system. The technology for digital distribution is great and can only get better, but its the policies that seem to be making it difficult for me to appreciate.
Forrest_01
I’m actually with Hazel on this one – The day i am unable to physically hold a game in my hand is the day i stop gaming.
Downloads are one thing (when they accompany a boxed product), but i can’t stand all of this streaming crap.
HisNameWasBen
Agreed. My PS3 and Xboxs don’t have enough memory to download games, anyway. I like having a collection of games on my shelf, and buying special editions with shiny metal cases and stuff. I hate downloading full games, unless they’re PsOne games or Indie.
KeRaSh
I guess I kind of understand you but I’m way too young to give up on my favourite hobby because I refuse to accept technological advances. :)
Forrest_01
Not mocking your point of view (as we are all entitled to one), but i don’t see how you not actually owning any product that you have paid for is an ‘advance’.
Not gonna get into the ‘who’s product is it’ debate, but the one thing that keeps cropping up in my mind is what if the streaming service is down? Not a problem presently (as i don’t use these services anyway), but if PSN is down for example, i can just play a boxed single player game. That won’t be a possibility with a fully streaming service.
KeRaSh
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think it’s an advantage (if that’s what you meant by advance – I was talking about the progression of technology in general). I’m aware of the downsides.
My point is, that I’d rather just play stuff that I don’t have any physical control over instead of not playing anything at all. We rely on company’s services on a daily basis and to an extent, it’s pretty similar to this case. I have a MasterCard and rely on being able to pay with it when I’m shopping but I’m unable to use MasterCards payment service if their payment servers are down and the POS terminals are unable to process the purchase. In a certain way it’s the same with cloud gaming. I’m screwed if the service is down and then have to rely on alternatives. I’m sure cloud gaming services would have to have some kind of service level agreements so in case of any downtime we’d be entitled to a refund or some kind of bonus.
Cloud based gaming hasn’t penetrated your typical household just yet but we already have cases of downtimes rendering people unable to play their games. I wanted to play Portal 2 on my PC when I got the game but was unable to link my PSN account to my Steam account because of the PSN outage and I was pissed at the time but it really wasn’t the end of the world.
tl;dr version: I understand where you are coming from and I agree that there are kinks in the cloud based gaming model but just because it’s not perfect just now, doesn’t mean it won’t be more acceptable somewhere down the line. Only time will tell how this will pan out and I’m trying to keep an open mind about it for as long as possible. :)
Forrest_01
Aha, so this is very much a case of ‘when optimist met pessimist’ then! Lol
See, I don’t think that they will be looking to offer any kind of compensation if the service is down, bar an explanation of “well, you signed up to the service… It’s in the terms that it could go down at any moment & therefore we are not liable. Have a nice day!”, but perhaps it’s the jaded cynic in me. I just can’t see a company that is offering a service that is of this type offering anything in the way of compensation.
It’s an interesting point though – What happens when something like WoW’s servers go down – Do they compensate their customers for lost time? I genuinely don’t know.
You gave a good couple of examples, but for me, they only help reinforce what I was getting at – The credit card thing is easily resolved by always carrying cold hard cash (as I do), so that if this were to happen, I can still pay for my purchase. Very much like if an online service (for example) went down, I could still rely on my boxed product to give me what I need. The PSN hack that you mentioned was another one where I was glad of my boxed products – What would happen if the streaming service was to get hacked (god forbid)? Would you be able to fall back on anything, or would that put paid to your plan to game, meaning you had to find some other activity to entertain you (again, god forbid!)?
Plus, i kinda like looking at my collection of game boxes & deciding on what to play (which although becomes more & more difficult with each purchase, is still nice to do) & I also like to trade when I am done with a game. Two things which would no longer be possible.
& don’t get me wrong, as cynical as I am about this whole thing, I see that it more than likely does have a place in today’s (or tomorrow’s?) gaming market, but what I don’t want to see is that being the only form of gaming that is around. If I can’t fall back on a boxed product if I need to (as in if the service was down), then I just won’t bother as the potential to not be able to do what I planned to do would annoy the hell out of me.
KeRaSh
That’s why I personally think a cloud/boxed hybrid system would be perfect for the next generation. You can still fall back on your boxed games if the cloud is down or anything.
I don’t know about the ToS for WoW but the usual approach for MMOs is to give people an extra free month if there were any serious downtimes. Service level agreements are a must for cloud based gaming. The customer wants some kind of security and in this case is more than entitled to it.
As for trading in games, I think it’s neglectable because I expect cloud games to cost significantly less than boxed versions in the future to compensate for potential trade-ins, especially if we’re talking about a flatrate kind of deal.
This market is still very young and far from what it will be in 5-10 years. I’m sure the next generation of consoles will follow the traditional style, while I hope that some kind of cloud functionality can be added in later through firmwares. Streaming demos would be a perfect example of great next gen cloud integration.
Forrest_01
Yeah, i suppose that’s essentially what i am getting at – As long as it’s an add on service such as the way that netflix, lovefilm, even iplayer work (or maybe even the PS store?), i will be happy enough.
As long as i still have something physical to fall back on, i will still be gaming.
I just don’t want this to become ‘it’ as i like to have the choice of what i want to play, when i want to play it.
Kennykazey
Well, we’re going to need a box of hardvare to access and make use of that cloud. So we’ll probably be forced to buy new consoles every now and then anyway.
Gamoc
Go onto Gaikai’s website (it’s gaikai.com). Stream a demo, through your browser. Just like that. That’s seriously fucking impressive.
In other news, he’s full of shit, but I would love streaming demos on my PS3. Can you imagine? ‘Hmm, that games looks interesting, I might try the demo’ [clicks ‘Play Demo’, plays demo instantly]
Brilliant.
Gamoc
In these comments: people afraid of the advancement of technology.
bluetemplar
I was thinking that a little while ago, having a gaika/onlive portal on the xmb to access demos, games, etc seems like quite a natural fit
KeRaSh
It kind of feels that way, doesn’t it?
I love the demo streaming idea. I never download demos because by the time the download would be finished I probably don’t have time to play the game. Right now it’s more of a planning ahead thing while streaming demos could lead to people giving demos a try that they probably wouldn’t have downloaded in the first place.
skibadee
or maybe happy without it not jumping on the cloud bandwagon means your scared not imo.
bacon_nuts
I am too tired to funnily understand this. So far I grasp it’s BS for attention, but I’d be more than happy for MS to drop out, they haven’t really done much recently and their controller is uncomfortable in my hands. Then again, if they pick up their game and make a comfy pad, I’m fine with that too.
The Lone Steven
Yeah and i’m currently the overlord of earth. :P
I seriously doubt MS/Ninty/Sony will quit the gaming market as they’ve all had success this generation. It wouldn’t be smart to quit whilst you are making a profit.
I’m not a fan of cloud gaming. Call me old fashioned, but i prefer to actually own physical copies of a game instead of buying a digital copy. Plus, not everyone has strong enough net connections to use cloud based gaming.
If gaming ever becomes Cloud only, i will quit gaming and just focus on precloud gaming. :-)