Sony won’t be revealing the PlayStation 4 next month. That, as you might be thinking, is a thought flying in the face of several stories over the last day or so that suggest otherwise. But let’s be honest, there’s almost zero chance of Sony showcasing their next big console at a press-free, invite only retail event.
I read with some disbelief yesterday the various stories appearing on the internet as writers picked up on Destination PlayStation, an event held in the States to court and advise retail partners on what Sony as a platform holder and publisher are up to this year. It’s an annual thing, and it’s rarely anything to get excited about.
It’s also actually something that was discovered at the end of last year – something I noticed on New Year’s Eve (and already wrote off in terms of a PS4 reveal) but that’s another post entirely.
That anyone would think – and I’m talking several industry writers of some years and respect here – that Sony would use Destination PlayStation to reveal the PS4 beggars belief. They won’t. They might – as is no doubt the case at CES just now – show it behind very closed doors to very select individuals and investors, but it’s not going to be a big reveal. For starters, nobody’s watching – press aren’t invited – and secondly Sony have far too much going on with the PS3 to be distracting any attention away from the current generation.
God Of War Ascension, Beyond, The Last Of Us, they’re all still coming to the PS3 and they’re all potentially massive. Sony won’t want to persuade any gamer to be thinking about the next generation until those games are out, which is why the more reasoned thinking is a pre-E3 event makes the most sense, and is the way I’m leaning just now.
PlayStation Lifestyle’s Sebastian Moss agrees, and is equally frustrated with the way certain outlets ran stories yesterday. “‘Report’ is a lovely word for journalists,” he said. “It’s basically used the same way as ‘rumor’, but it sounds more credible, leading to more ever-important clicks due to the power of a misleading title,” picking up on the way both Develop and MCV ran with similarly styled headlines, despite sourcing the same source, a certain “Expert Reviews”.
A source that has since removed the story, you’ll note.
I’d like to think that somewhere in February or March the major retailers will be briefed, at least in principle, on upcoming hardware. Sony need to secure shelf space and it’s hardly a stretch to assume that reps will be indicated potential launch windows, number of titles, pricing and so on. But a full reveal? No, not a chance, and to speculate otherwise with big headlines seems ridiculous.
And, yet, to verify all this we did the unthinkable: we asked Sony. What did they say? “We don’t comment on rumour or speculation,” came the reply, understandable, but hardly concrete. I should have asked them whether they comment on “reports” instead…
orimisac
IMHO, PS4 will be announced near next TGS to be launched in 2014. But I’m concerned about what PS4 will be.
Game industry is changing fast. Consecrated market models are just starting to show weariness.
Let’s just see, for instance, what’s happening with traditional game franchises like Mass Effect or Assassins Creed. Investment necessary to develop these games increased exponentially. The size of the games in terms of gigabytes (which is a good way to measure size of investment) more than doubled in less than 5 years. I read somewhere that budget for AC III was in the order of two billion US dollars.
Obviously, if an enterprise has expanded expenses/costs, it must (at least) increase receipts proportionally. It can be done in two ways: (1) increasing prices or (2) selling more.
In the current economical state of USA, UE and Japan, increasing prices is just something that cannot be done. Then there’s the question of selling more.
To massively sell something, not only the relation price/value of the merchandise must be good, but also its total cost of ownership must be acceptable. And there is the hub: a new console increases the total cost of ownership of games. If one is forced into purchasing a new console, then its cost must be (rapidly) amortized through purchased games.
This issue is dramatic with Vita: not only the cost of the device is hard to be amortized through games but, contrary to what good sense dictates, it increases as people purchase downloaded games (the need to purchase expensive memory cards). And that’s why Vita is in the marshes and feeling mud deeper and deeper…
Now, imagine a new console. Ok, PS3 games are currently being sold around 40~60 USD and most dudes are complaining about this price range. Now, imagine that besides having to invest in the game, customer is also forced into a new console priced at, let’s guess, 250 USD (conservative). Won’t be a surprise if he/she decides to wait for a while to see what other games will appear for the new hardware.
So, in terms of market, it’s just not the right time for a generation change. Nintendo was forced into WiiU because Wii was absolutely outdated and risking not even been compatible with new TV sets. That’s not the case about PS3 (and even XBox360).
a inferior race
No game has a budget of a billion dollars much less two billion dollars.
Forrest_01
There better not be a reveal anytime soon – I have just had to fork out for a new PS3!!
Dagnabit.
Starman
With very few devs using the full power of the ps3 I wonder how many will bother to use the ps4’s.