Sandeep Aggarwal, an analyst for Caris and Co, has said that Kinect could generate $2 billion in “incremental consumer spending” on video games in the first year after launch, with 50%-60% of that going to Microsoft itself.
There are, apparently, four ways that Kinect could help the Redmond giant. Firstly, he expects 15%-25% of current 360 owners to buy into Kinect during that first 12 months period, generating almost $900 million in hardware revenue.
He then suggests that a higher adoption range and “market share gain” is probable, with Microsoft selling an incremental one million consoles in the first year – another $300 million. And then there’s the obvious – new software sales that require Kinect, and a higher gross subscriber growth for Xbox Live.
Aggarwal also suggests that Microsoft have reason to be bullish just now, with strong demand for Windows 7, and some fluff about the iPad, at which point I lost interest.
gazzagb
$1 Billion seems alot for just one accessory.
Charmed_Fanatic
yeah, but its $4000 so they only need to sell a few ;)
Andrew Wright
Just remember that $1 Billion dollars is only $100 million, whereas £1 billion is £1000 million.
xdarkmagician
a billion in US$ is a 1,000 million, not a 100 million
Zoidberg79
Hmmmm, wasn’t it wild speculation like this that got us into the GFC in the first place?
I wish I had a company that came out and said “Zoidberg is going to make $100,000,000,000,000.00 this year”
I could get all sorts of investors to dump truck loads of money at my door.
AG2297
When you have lots of money, its easier to make lots more money.
colossalblue
Microsoft are incredibly adept at marketing a concept. That is something which saw the Wii take the lion’s share of the market and consumer awareness so it will probably pay off for MS too.
I think Sony actually have a more difficult task marketing the Move because it is still very much a gaming device rather than a lifestyle product. People’s perception will be that they have seen that before with the WiiMote whereas Kinect is a concept that they have only seen in Sci-Fi. Whether or not it works as advertised is another matter. The Wii certainly didn’t and it’s only now that the concept they sold is being properly realised by the Motion Plus and, to a greater degree, Move.
STILLCANTTHINKOFAGOODPSNNAME
maby this coca-cola deal will do good things for sony
bunimomike
Completely agree. Microsoft could genuinely teach Sony about bullish marketing. I personally feel that Kinect is a bit crap but let’s be fair… it’s still going to sell by the disused-360s-bin-load. :-)
andytorr
They did brilliant with Zune ;)
Aroxi
In other news – Microsoft announce $1Bn price tag for Kinect. Bobby Kotick plans to support Kinect.
bajere
how do they work out how many 360 owners there are?? do they use LIVE subscription stats? With all RROD numbers at 40ish% and people going out to rebuy the unit and bin the old, i don’t think that sales numbers are enough to go on.
On the story; I only think this will succeed if the 360 market has way more causal players than what i’m thinking, or MS drop the price of the 360 and Kenect to £150 all-in.
ProjectJAY
Bull. Oney. I don’t see this happening. I know it’s fanboyish of me, but I every time I see Kinect, I think EyeToy. And we all know how well that went.
bajere
i don’t see that as fanboyisum mate, your perfectly right in saying that IMO
a inferior race
To be honest that is what I think as well and I thought the move sounded a lot better. Then I saw trailers for some of the games for the move and thought this looks like eyetoy with a stick.
MegaBonez
Impossible, that would involve people buying it!
hazelam
make a billion with kinect? in bizarro world maybe.
retro_
1 billion lire perhaps
Tw1sted
1 billion yen?
spekjemean
Will it set my living room on fire ?