Sunday Thoughts: A Bleak Future?
Rinse and repeat.
Published: 19:00, 14/11/2010 by Chris [cc_star].
28Seeing Call Of Duty and FIFA’s recent record breaking sales success you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s boom time in the world of gaming, a time where all a development studio or publisher needs to do is release a AAA game and then sit back watching the millions roll in.
Unfortunately the sound of champagne corks popping at post-launch parties can be something of a rarity these days, with new IP (intellectual property) and established franchises bombing in recent sales charts. This in itself isn’t a huge surprise because anyone who has seen any of the end of year financials in 2008/09 will know the videogame market is declining. This was made worse by even further declines in 2009/10, a decline on top of a decline is never a good thing.
Here’s a few games which came out this year to critical but not sales success; Vanquish, Enslaved, Alan Wake, Blur, Split/Second, Singularity and if we’re being hyper-critical then we could include Heavy Rain; although it sold to the PS3 install-base extremely well, it failed to make the mainstream breakthrough that David Cage eluded that the innovative control scheme would do, during the pre-release chatter. These titles represent the biggest of the new IP to be released on console this year and with the exception of Heavy Rain they all pretty much bombed. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the majority of new IP games didn’t pay off this year.
Faced with this unsustainable problem, what is a publisher going to do; keep plugging away and hope for the best, or change tactics and force the growth that they need to survive? It seems that the largest of publishers have already mind their mind up and it might not make great reading for people who consider themselves core gamers.
Activision is currently the king of the hill and has the stated desire to only focus on strong brands. Of course this can leave them open to criticism from some quarters, people who would perhaps like to see greater risk from the worlds largest publisher. Equally its hard to argue that Activision is heading down the wrong path as their revenues and profits prove that they are heading down a path which is working out very well for them.
EA also like to focus on their mega franchises with new FIFA/Madden/NHL/NBA licensed games a certainty, along with the established franchises like The Sims, Medal Of Honor and of course Battlefield with its multitude of spinoffs. Ubisoft and THQ have both stated in recent times that they want to focus on their established franchises, with this being the case where are all our new gaming experiences going to come from.
If we look to the Far East we see CAPCOM controversially changing their output to suit Western tastes, the end result of which could be that they offer nothing different from what we’re already getting elsewhere. On to SEGA who have just released one of the best games of the year in the form of Vanquish, which barely troubled the sales charts. After the sales figures were released SEGA announced they would need to adapt for an audience whose expanding demand is for social network based games.
If the industry heavyweights are essentially all focusing almost entirely on their core franchises what does this mean for the future, are gamers destined to be playing the same thing with incremental upgrades over and over again?
Disney Interactive hinted at where their future growth is going to come from with the recent acquisition of Playdom, a company which makes games for social networks and has over 42m players regularly playing its products; well over double the 18m gamers who are predicted to be buying Call Of Duty: Black Ops.
Disney aren’t going it alone in the world of social network gaming as EA has made a major land-grab by snapping up Slingshot Media, Hands-On Mobile, ThreeSF and J2Play in the past couple of years, these acquisitions have been bolstered by the $400m purchase of Playfish, and the $20m Chillingo, publishers of Angry Birds and other hit iPhone games. It’s not hard to see where their corporate focus is going to be for the next few years as they look to leverage these investments.
Given the fact that the majority of publishers have stated they are going to focus on their core franchises and their money-men are busy tying up deals for social network gaming companies, does the future look bleak for the once mighty core gamer? Will we be faced with incremental upgrades and HD remakes for the foreseeable future, are we destined to only be able to play games whilst being poked on Facebook, or is there a silver lining on the horizon? Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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14/11/2010 at 19:07
Member since: Forever
Having sold over a million units for a mature title, I think it’s quite unfair to even place Heavy Rain in the ‘failed to sell well column’.
And aside from Call of Duty and obviously WoW which rakes in piles of money for Activision, what else of theirs continues to sell well? Renowned franchises such as Tony Hawks and Guitar Hero.
Whilst I agree that established franchises can sell well. It appears on a few really manage to do so.
14/11/2010 at 22:00
Member since: Apr 2010
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14/11/2010 at 22:48
Member since: Forever
“Here’s a few games which came out this year to critical but not sales success…and if we’re being hyper-critical then we could include Heavy Rain”
Yeah he did. I know he mentioned that it would be hyper-critical, but I’d say it would be just wrong.
14/11/2010 at 23:22
Member since: Forever
What about the second half the sentence which you’ve missed off your partial quote.
I didn’t.
I even said it sold extremely well.
15/11/2010 at 04:54
Member since: Jan 2010
I kind of get what djsecondnature is saying though cc.
“although it sold to the PS3 install-base extremely well, it failed to make the mainstream breakthrough…”
It was only available on PS3, how could it do anything _more_ than sell extremely well to the PS3 install base? I suppose it’s splitting hairs, but I would have just said HR is an exception to the rule. Perhaps the billion dollar profits of the CoDs has changed the perspective on what ‘successful’ is?
Otherwise I enjoyed your article, some very good points and reminds me why I names like Activision and EA always leave a nasty taste in your mouth after you utter them. It’s not that they make ‘bad’ games, it’s just that they feed the lobotomised gaming masses and make squillions doing it.
I don’t think new IPs, smaller devs and indies are dying – if anything the fact that the major players aren’t pusing new IPs will give these guys breathing room in a market that gamers still want filled.
I still think of Uncharted as new IP – despite it having a ‘sequel’. Likewise InFamous, Prototype, LBP, Demon’s Souls, Dragon Age, Borderlands, MAG and The Saboteur just to name a few in my collection.
I’m not worried for the future – when I need my ‘mainstream’ fix there is plenty to chose from from BFBC2, MOH, CODBLOPS etc, and when I need something more intelligent I literally still have a backlog of games to get through with plenty more on the horizon such as Agent, The Last Guardian, Homefront, Starhawk, InFamous 2 and Uncharted 3.
15/11/2010 at 09:54
Member since: Jul 2009
Stunningly put, Jesse.
I think it’s easy to think things aren’t going so well but thankfully we’re still basking in great times. XBLA and PSN providing some of the finest gaming experiences to be had. Hopefully, the likes of Flower, Limbo, etc, provide enough ROI (Return On Investment) so their respective developers can continue to create something different.
The digital delivery system we see this generation has helped a huge amount as spiralling development costs of Blu-ray titles (coupled with a publisher attitude of charging the same old “£40″ per title) meant that less risk was being taken. MS and Sony’s online stores couldn’t have come at a better time.
14/11/2010 at 22:43
Member since: Jan 1970
Firstly, I would like to point out, the above list of games (Blur, Split/Second, Singularity)were certainly not high budget AAA games, and are not an appropriate gauge of an industry trend. Alan Wake suffered from an extremely poor marketing campaign. Vanquish is still relatively new with high scoring reviews in a very competitive month of releases and should see a slow rise in sales over time. Enslaved was simply not a game to buy in October. It was released in the most competitive week of 2010 and was flanked by games like Fallout: New Vegas, Fable III, Castlevania, Smackdown, and many more that ALL promised several more hours of gameplay than Enslaved’s mere 8 – 9 hours (which was revealed in previews).
Why not point out the true AAA Games of this generation? How about Batman:AA which has no grossed over half a billion dollars? How about the performance of games such as Metal Gear Solid 4, Uncharted, Gears of War, Killzone 2, Red Dead Redemption, Grand Theft Auto 4, etc?
The truth is, when approaching the media, these publishers have no clue what they want to do. Some want to focus on casual gaming, and others have expressed seeing less risk in AAA titles. It takes a simple Google search to see that plain as day.
If anything, this drop in sales should be a good thing for the future of the industry. Currently, only quality, high end games are selling. Reviews almost directly reflect sales this generation. This bodes well for gamers. This is since we seem to be hungrier and hungrier for better quality as gamers, meaning only quality titles will sell well.
Alongside the above, we are seeing publishers finally learn that releasing in the same time as their competition (October) is not going to help make anyone any money (I call this playing “tug of war” with consumer dollars)so we’re seeing releases spread farther apart.
All in all, this article is seemingly over opinionated and should have been further researched before being published (in my opinion). Take a closer look, and you should see that these industry trends in the gaming industry is actually good for us, and not the opposite. ;)
15/11/2010 at 13:32
Member since: Forever
Excellent comment, unfortunately I’m too tied up to respond in full, but I mentioned those games as they were new IPs launched this year, some of them were mega-publicised like Alan Wake & Blur, and some of them were stealth launches like Singularity & Split/Second… the games you’ve mentioned (MGS, Gears, KZ, GTA etc) are all the mega-franchises I was talking about, so to extrapolate your point, your kinda proving that new IP will can wither & die whilst the march of the mega-franchise continues… thats kinda my point
14/11/2010 at 19:13
Member since: Feb 2009
I think that the big franchises are a necessity to the industry. For Activision, COD is by far their main source of money. And because of that, they can afford to bring out new IP’s like Blur. It also means it can publish games with smaller target audiences, that are never going to earn that much such as Apache: Air Assault.
So it’s down to big, well known successful franchises to provide publishers with the money to back smaller, and new IP’s. Therefore I think the Industry is still going strong, and HD remakes are coming out because there is the demand for them.
15/11/2010 at 11:33
Member since: Feb 2009
i dunno, i think wow probably brings in more money for activision surely.
12 million players all paying their monthly fee of 8-9 quid, and whatever other country’s currency they operate in.
that’s what 90 million a month?
and that’s without taking any of the merchandise into account.
there are action figures, books, comics, there’s the trading card game there’s clothing and other collectables.
it reminds me of when i went to that star wars celebration thing a few years back, it’s staggering how much money is really being made through these IPs.
15/11/2010 at 13:37
Member since: Forever
WoW is the biggest moneymaker in all of gaming I believe, it was Acti’s acquisition of Blizzard that saw them become the biggest publisher, and enabled them to back MW1 so strongly which in-turn made the CoD franchise the one to beat (sales-wise)
However, Facebook (style) gaming could be one of the biggest threats to WoW, it certainly seems to have stemmed the flood of new sign-ups it was getting at one point when it look like the whole world would start playing it at one point.
14/11/2010 at 19:13
Member since: Aug 2008
Vanquish, Enslaved, Alan Wake, Blur, Split/Second.
With the possible exception of Enslaved, which I enjoyed, those are all poor-to-average games, in my personal opinion.
Scooting around on your knees in Vanquish lost my interest – too cartoony.
Alan Wake – not out on PS3, but otherwise, it’s a game which seemed much better when it was announced than when it was finally released.
Blur and Split Second were very similar arcade style racers, but I tried the demos, and neither was particularly inspiring, so I didn’t buy either.
For me, there hasn’t been much at all in the run up to this Christmas that is worth buying. Enslaved, Medal of Honor and now GT5 will be about it.
The rest of the better games are due in the first few months of 2011, with Dead Space 2, inFamous 2, Killzone 3, and possibly the likes of Bulletstorm, Homefront, Crysis 2 and Brink, along with a few others.
14/11/2010 at 19:20
Member since: Feb 2010
Split second was a lot better than the demo could suggest, I hated the demo, but had it bought for me as a gift, and now I rank it up there as the second best arcade racer of all time (behind burnout 3).
You can’t judge a game fully on a demo.
14/11/2010 at 19:25
Member since: Aug 2009
Very true.
The demo for Dead Space was truly awful but the final release was immense.
On the other hand, I felt that the demo for Castlevania was oodles of fun but I bought the game and found myself playing it begrudgingly.
14/11/2010 at 21:27
Member since: Jun 2009
Blur is a absolute blast online and I don’t really like online gaming
14/11/2010 at 19:17
Member since: Aug 2009
While I don’t ever want established franchises to disappear (such as EA’s sports games), I’m actually a huge fan of new IP and have found huge amounts of fun in discovery new worlds, characters and stories.
Some of the games you mention have been some of the most fun I’ve had with the PS3, Enslaved, Split/Second, Singularity and even older titles like Darksiders and The Saboteur.
It pains me to think that creative spirits are being crushed because of numbers. It’s the way the world is I suppose but that won’t stop it disappointing me. I’m just happy that Team Ico survived. :) (though I’d looooooove to see a next-gen Okami)
14/11/2010 at 19:18
Member since: Aug 2009
discovering* …
14/11/2010 at 19:27
Member since: Forever
Can’t afford many games. So I save my £30 (or thereabouts) for the ones I’m (almost) certain I’ll like. There are games I’d like to try, but don’t because of cost. I try stuff on the PSN quite often because the cost is so low.
14/11/2010 at 20:09
Member since: Jan 2010
I worry that the market is saturated sometimes. How many fps games come out and how many bomb! Most bring nothing new. So people keep their hard earned (which is in short supply nowadays) for games which they know will be good e.g. CoD.
It willl be a shame if we loose the creativity. But the industry has to take some blame for all the “me too”s and shovel ware that comes out. At the same time i’m dissapointed that a large amount of the gaming community will never look beyond CoD.
14/11/2010 at 20:40
Member since: Apr 2010
Borderlands is a good example of a game that was a little unconventional, but was executed perfectly and gained a loyal following and critical acclaim. There is hope for new IPs, but they need to be done well.
14/11/2010 at 20:58
Member since: May 2010
Social gaming and to a lesser extent mobile gaming are not going to give investors the returns that they are expecting. The barriers to entry are so low that it is possible for a hobbyist programmer to set up their own revenue stream, which will compete effectively with EA et al. I do believe that we are in a new “dot com boom” and those companies investing heavily are going to suffer when the bubble bursts.
Regarding the successes of COD and FIFA, Activision and EA employ marketing departments who will saturate all media outlets with press releaes, etc. Through this saturation, the BBCs, etc will continue to give mainstream coverage to those, while ignoring IPs that are not effectively marketed. Heavy Rain for example was expected to sell around 500,000 in its first year so less marking effort therefore expended – the fact that it sold 1.5million, shows how starved a section of the populace is.
14/11/2010 at 21:38
Member since: Jul 2009
I’m struggling to see how these social games will make a serious returns for the mega-publishers. I can appreciate that money will be made via micro-transactions but the very phrase illustrates how low these are in terms of value.
14/11/2010 at 21:59
Member since: Apr 2010
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14/11/2010 at 22:04
Member since: Apr 2010
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14/11/2010 at 23:32
Member since: Forever
NfS is my last game I’m buying this year, I’m concious I’m just rewarding th emerging core franchise culture, but its Criterion and they’re freaking awesome.
14/11/2010 at 22:58
Member since: Feb 2009
I stuck to my guns and havent bought Black Ops nor FIFA , im a gaming snob and I believe them to be in the main ,the choice of the uninformed gamer.
14/11/2010 at 23:02
Member since: Mar 2009
Just because something’s popular doesn’t mean it’s bad. Black Ops and FIFA are actually pretty solid.
15/11/2010 at 11:56
Member since: Aug 2008
I’m with you Raen.
I have never been a big FPS player but I liked COD4 and KZ2 so stuck Blops on my rental list. It came on launch day and actually I’ve really enjoyed it. It’s not the best game ever as the sales might lead you to believe but if snobbery is preventing you from playing it, you are cutting your nose off to spite your face.