The last month has held a few surprises for major publishers, and not the good kind. Sales are down quite drastically compared to 2015, with a 52% drop in sales the week before last – ending November 12th – compared to the same time last year. Major games like Watch Dogs 2, Dishonored 2, Titanfall 2 and even the once implaccable Call of Duty series have all underperformed quite significantly.
A lot of people might be left scratching their heads wondering what on Earth has gone wrong? As always, the answer is not going to be a simple one.
One thing is quite striking about all of these games, in that they’re all high profile sequels. Dishonored 2’s lackluster launch saw it charting just fourth in its debut week, and this is perhaps the most surprising failure to me. The first game was very well regarded, it sold well and the sequel has built upon those excellent foundations.
Perhaps it’s a victim of Bethesda’s own success. Last week is largely so disappointing because it compares so unfavourably to the same week last year, when Fallout 4 had just launched. That was a game that effortlessly broke into the mainstream, where far more than the regular gamers were talking about it. It sold millions of copies within hours of release and made more than $750 million in its first 24 hours globally. Let’s put that in perspective: GTA V made $800 million in its first day on sale…
In the UK 2016 is down on 2015 as a whole to the tune of 13.1% revenue. It’s a strange end to the year as well, as we’ve seen a number of high profile hardware launches from Sony, and all the retail supply restrictions that so often entails.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Battlefield 1 has sold exceptionally well for EA, Mafia III was the fastest selling game launch in 2K Games’ history – GTA, it should be said, effectively lives under its own brand at Take Two. Mafia III’s performance means that those pondering whether or not having a black lead character sent Watch Dogs 2 tumbling can probably put that as a secondary factor, when Lincoln Clay’s revenge trip was one of the better selling games last month.
Other things about the game might have also hindered it, though. Alongside having Marcus as the lead, there’s a much chirpier, more youthful and excessively colourful look to the game which might grate with some people. But there was also the last minute wash of bad news for prospective buyers, as Ubisoft had to give notice that the seamless multiplayer wasn’t working – and still isn’t, in what is fast becoming a major failing for the publisher.
Yet this was a game that was almost universally well received and is considered to be a much better game than the original. The first game was dark, it was a bit stodgy, it didn’t make the best use of its theme. When 300,000 fewer people buy a game compared to its predecessor, the quality and perception of the original has to be taken into account.
Of course, timing has to be a factor as well. The first game wasn’t ready in time for its November release back in 2013 and luckily fled the awe inspiring release of GTA V to launch the following May instead. Releasing in the always jam packed pre-Christmas rush of October and November is a very different prospect.
That May launch also came at a time when people were constantly crying out for actual games to release for their shiny new consoles. The PlayStation 4 was selling like hotcakes – and to a lesser extent, so was the Xbox One – but what could you play on it? The story is the same for Titanfall 2, where the first released early in the console cycle and early in the year, only for the sequel to be released sandwiched between Battlefield 1 and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare.
You could easily argue that it was afflicted by the same negativity that Infinite Warfare was greeted with – the millions of downvotes on Call of Duty’s early trailers was clearly a sign of things to come, even if the game was still the second biggest launch of the year – but I’d argue that it was more apathy and an understated marketing campaign in a busy release window. With Battlefield 1’s sales tracking well against Infinite Warfare, EA clearly backed the right (war) horse, but they didn’t give Titanfall 2 room to breathe or the right amount of support. You have to worry for the future of a series that delivered easily one of the best single player first person shooter campaigns of the last decade.
I see shades of 2008 in all of this. I distinctly remember hemming and hawing about whether to pick up certain games at launch, having just purchased a PlayStation 3, but a scant few weeks after their launch, I could so easily grab games like Mirror’s Edge, MotorStorm: Pacific Rift and LittleBigPlanet for £20. Like this year, 2008 was also a massive shock to world politics and financial stability. With the way that the EU Referendum and US presidential election panned out, perhaps wallets are tightening once more in the UK.
It’s almost certainly for this reason that Black Friday has been blown out of all proportion in the UK this year. It’s no longer a single day, but a fortnight on Amazon, and there’s tons of other retailers going early with their sales and promotions to spur on purchases. That messaging is everywhere, and there’s no doubt plenty of people who are simply happy to wait a couple of weeks and pick up games on the cheap.
You could also be fooled into thinking that, with most of the games I’m talking about here being November releases where US figures have yet to be released, this could be a flash in the British pan. It’s not. NPD results for October say that Titanfall 2 wasn’t just down in the UK, but also plummeted 79% in the US compared to the original. Gears of War 4 only equalled sales of Judgement, the lowest bar for the series, while Rise of the Tomb Raider and Skylanders Imaginators also poorly. As a whole, October’s console game sales were up 31% year on year in the US, but simply looking at that one statistic hides a number of notable failures.
In the end, there’s no single reason why each of these games failed to match the high expectations pinned upon them, some bigger than others. How the publishers react and change their approach in future will be fascinating to see. Will more companies try to find space for their games in other parts of the year? Will they fundamentally change their future gaming line up? For those eagerly looking forward to sequels to these, you have to hope the they have a long tail of sales that wags harder than the happiest dog in the world.
MrYd
What are the numbers like for the first month for these games that aren’t selling as well? What are they like after 6 months? (Ok, none of the examples given have been out for 6 months yet)
So many games coming out now, do you buy them now, and then pay the same amount again for a season pass? Or buy it in a few months when it’s cheaper and get all the extra DLC once at once? (As I did recently with Fallout 4)
How many copies did the original Watch Dogs or Dishonored sell on PS3? 80 million potential customers there (and the same for the 360) compared to how many now? 50 million PS4s by now? Possibly 20something XBones? Add some PS4 and XBones to those potential customers for the originals, and you’re looking at 1/2 or 1/3 of the possible sales.
I’m not convinced the story that everyone seems to be pushing over the past few weeks is the whole picture, or even a problem. But it’s the same everywhere these days. If it’s not a huge success making enormous amounts of money, it’s a failure. A film not making a billion dollars is considered as doing badly to some people, even if it’s made a profit and DVD/Blu-ray/streaming sales haven’t even started yet.
homerjnick
The answer is easy…
Games are being released half-finished…by the time they produce the final patch or the GOTY edition the game resembles nothing like its original release state.
So I find I just wait…I waited till AC Unity was a year old…I waited for BloodBorne GOTY edition came out…I’m waiting for Dark Souls 3 GOTY to release.
I get the games cheaper, with full DLC and fully patched to enjoy the experience.
Uncharted 4 was the exception!
Stefan L
Titanfall 2 had an 88MB patch on day one and is basically perfectly polished, COD is always a pretty safe bet in that regard as well, and Dishonored 2’s really only marred by some performance issues on PC (console does have a juddery frame rate at times as well, as far a I’m aware).
The main one is Watch Dogs 2 and the lack of seamless multiplayer, but as a single player game I’ve not heard of any notable problems.
homerjnick
Right but across the spectrum of other games you will find most have issues at launch…this puts people off buying them day one or even week one…
WE know of exceptions like you mention and what I mentioned, like U4, but a fair amount of games are coming out with issues that certainly spoil the experience.
Surely that is a large factor in why people are not parting full price for games in general?
Starman
Titanfall 2 – stupid release timing.
Watch Dogs 2 – the first disappointed many, so the interest was going to be down.
Dishonoured 2 – like Rise otTR last year, just too many other bigger games to choose from.
The Lone Steven
To be fair, Fallout 4 was lucky. It only had COD and BF to contend with in terms of sales along with last november being average. This year? Packed to the brim. Dishonoured 2 shouldn’t have been launched at this time. December or January would have been smarter. Gets it away from the Skyrim Special Edition shadow, gives people time to get through November’s hits. Titanfall 2 is getting excellent reviews but it is dead on arrival because of the dumb decision to release it near BF1. It just doesn’t have the strength to stand out in a busy month. WD2 is suffering from WD’s disappointment but i think once the busy rush dies down, it’ll start to pick up. I can see it getting down to £20 around christmas and that will inject a lot of life into it.
It’s just too many games and some require a lot of time to play. E.g. Skyrim if you are just wanting to do the main quests only along with both main quests of both DLC parts, 40 hours(Taking into account levelling, the likihood of dragons attacking and messing around). Dishonoured 2? 20 per character(tis an assumption/hope). BF1? MP is strongest at launch. COD is well, fecked this year. The Ezio Collection is at least 60 hours long. Again, just if one focuses on the main stuff.
It’s too busy and there’s too much for gamers to choose from. I know I wouldn’t be affected if I had a PS4 as well, Dishonoured 2 would be the easiest pick for me. Original was excellent and despite it’s length, I must have sank at least 60 hours in total during the entire duration of owning it. Watch Dogs 2 would be a game that I would treat as a “Get when it’s reduced or on offer.” affair as WD 1 bored me at times. Also, the final mission was unneccessary with it’s sheer amount of police. There’s challenging and then this. If you want to avoid losing the blue side, it is hard not to. I recall just going “Oh fuck this! Feck this, you want me? Here is RAMBO!” with it after the tenth attempt. Naturally, the original being meh at worst, good at best would make me hestitate.
I do hope Titanfall 2 does succeed as it will send EA a message that TF2’s approach is actually a good thing.
matthangzhou
I agree with a lot of the above. Another factor for me is the aging gamer population. As the lone Steven mentioned – games are becoming bigger and bigger and are a huge time sink. For me with a growing family and career I don’t have the time or energy to pick up new games all the time – I just pick my favourite. The quality and volume of games are also a factor. So many 8 or 9 out of ten games coming out all the time as opposed to years ago – the industry is a victim of its own success.
I had watch dogs and dishonoured but haven’t bought the sequels despite enjoying them. I’m not ready to retread old ground and it’s this recycling of the same games with a few tweaks that puts me off. I actually bought titanfall 2 because it was a bit different to the usual games I play.
TSBonyman
For me, it’s simply too many games that i want to play releasing too closely together.
psychobudgie
The reasons are very simple. Many are overhyped, overpriced and quite often unfinished products. Just take a look at some of the PC AAA releases recently, No Mans Sky, Dishonoured 2, Arkham Knight, Mafia 3, all broken unfinished messes. It is no wonder people are less likely to pay through the nose on hype alone. Serves them right if people aren’t buying them. A good start would be releasing finished games sans DLC and Micro Transactions.
Crazy_Del
Well it’s simple. They are waiting for Black Friday…. either that or they are skint from getting the PSVR and/or the PS4 Pro….
Oh they are too busy and comfortable with a game such as Fifa 17, Call of Duty, Battlefield 1 and Gears of War 4?
Perhaps they are too busy playing the mini NES and are reminiscing (sp?) Their old gaming days?
Or they simply have no money and forced to buy Xmas presents for the family lol.
I think it’s far too many games out in small windows…. EA made a mess with their games Ubi is so so but MP being broken is what made gamers lost interest and will wait for Black Friday or a price drop after Xmas. Titanfall has dropped in prices to £20 so that will snap up in time for Xmas. I am absolutely skint from buying Deus Ex Special Edition, (August) to Fifa 17 (Sept) and Gears/Mafia III both special editions on same day (Oct) and then a week later PSVR with a few games in couple days apart and then Battlefield 1 (still Oct) and lastly a recently special edition of Watchdogs 2…..
Man October abused my wallet and left it for Dead xD if anyone has seen it please return my deadbeat wallet back to me…. I miss him and need him for Black Friday Xmas deals soon!
Tuffcub
Interesting thing is publishers are predict profit increases. Whilst game sales are down, DLC and microtransaction sales are through the roof.
Also week 2 sales are much stronger, which seems to indicate people are not pre-ordering and are waiting for reviews – which makes publishers putting embargoes on reviews until release day a bit pointless.
DJ Judas
Rehashes, large backlogs for core buyers, and FFXV wasn’t out in a couple of weeks this time last year.
Mindshare seems to be limited to only a few titles this year, at the cost of others.