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Michael Pachter With Another Wild Prediction - Xbox To Win Next Gen

Go on Michael, predict a riot.

This is not news. Let’s be clear about that. While Michael Pachter is a very clever industry analyst who has, at times, given great advice to investors, he also clearly revels in his role as fanboy fire-starter.

So while his latest predictions – made at this year’s South by South West event in Austin – are an interesting talking point, they are by no means “news” in the sense that half of what Pachter says these days seems solely aimed at raising his profile among those of us who like to point and laugh. But we do enjoy discussing his bold, attention-grabbing assertions and we thought you’d like the chance to have your say too.

With that rather obvious disclaimer out of the way, let’s get to the pointing and the laughing.


This slide was from Michael's presentation as SXSW.
Michael Pachter has said that Microsoft will “win” the next generation. He thinks that the TV Tuner and Skype will be “killer apps” and that potential deals with MSOs (that’s basically cable operators in the US) and ISP (the people who charge you for internet access) lend themselves to subsidies. Actually, I’ve postulated around that last point myself with regards to the next generation so please don’t point and laugh too much at that one…

Although Pachter thinks Microsoft will win the next gen, he sees Sony – who’s home console actually seems to have globally outsold Microsoft’s this generation as being primed to “thrive” although they’ll still be playing “catch up” to someone. Nintendo, presumably.

On Nintendo, he thinks they’ll have strong software sales but that their hardware sales “will be challenged.” Which is basically just stating what has happened in the months since the Wii U’s launch. He also thinks their handhelds will lose share to smartphones and tablets. Welcome to 2010, Mikey.

Pulling some good news out of his ars… hat, Pachter thinks we’ve seen the last publisher bankruptcy for a while. He does give himself a bit of wiggle room with that claim though – predicting the possibility of some “consolidation.”

Finally, it’s good news for the millions of you who have been enjoying some of those high-selling PC games over the past few years – “the PC as gaming device will make a comeback,” apparently. Nobody tell Blizzard.

Image Source: StickSkills

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51 Comments
  1. Tuffcub
    On the naughty step.
    Since: Dec 2008

    Ignore him. He may go away.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:08.
    • bowie
      Member
      Since: Jan 2012

      Unfortunately pacter is the second prophet to declare sony’s loss to Microsoft by virtue of Sony making a games console rather than a video streaming/entertainment box. As a gamer it is hard not to find this galling.

      Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:07.
    • bunimomike
      Member
      Since: Jul 2009

      Agreed. It’s not going to happen but wouldn’t it be lovely. I understand the whole mechanism behind such predictions but he really does just seem to pull shit from the air. Such sweeping statements are frustrating at the best of times – no matter which platform he leans towards.

      Please, god, take the spotlight off of this complete dullard.

      Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 13:18.
    • Sheepdip
      Member
      Since: Feb 2013

      Quite clearly he is referring to US region,

      “potential deals with MSOs (that’s basically cable operators in the US) and ISP”

      So how can he base what happens in the US (which is smaller than Europe and Japan gaming markets) to predict what happens.

      This might as well have said.

      “like last time, the American console will do well in America”. That is the reality….

      Comment posted on 13/03/2013 at 08:34.
  2. hannes_truce
    Member
    Since: Sep 2008

    Hahahahahahaaa, hahaa. Haha: Ha haha hahahaaa! Ha? Hahaha haaaaaa.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:09.
  3. Taylor Made
    Member
    Since: Oct 2011

    I predict it’s going be cold in the next few days & I will go out to say it might also snow & rain.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:10.
  4. Mike
    Member
    Since: Oct 2008

    Does he actually get paid to write this crap? We’re still at least around 8 months away from the PS4 being released and however long for the next Xbox – how on earth can anyone predict what’s going to happen next gen.

    Anyone can write this pile of trash.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:10.
  5. Haydar
    Member
    Since: Mar 2012

    Even with 1 year disadvantage and weird Cell architecture, PS3 was sold more than Xbox, worldwide. (And how the hell Sony is playing catch up?)

    Now PS4 is x86 and there’s no time disadvantage, Microsoft will win huh?

    Yeah i’m sure it will be. Especially with a weapon like Skype, PS4 will be crushed. Which idiot buys a console without a Skype app…

    Are you fucking kidding me or this analyze is just about North America?

    Because you know: http://www.troll.me/images/ancient-aliens-guy/north-americans.jpg

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:14.
    • jimmy-google
      Member
      Since: Feb 2009

      Looking at Patchers slides he’s using outdated numbers. He still has 360 ahead of the ps3 and the wii at under 100mil. His PS3 numbers are 70m sales, in January they were around 77m.

      His slides also show he’s predicting 85-95m for the PS4 and 85-95m for the new xbox. Even based on those any “win” would be marginally. He’s clearly not that confident about his statement.

      Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:23.
  6. The Lone Steven
    Never heard of him.
    Since: May 2010

    In other news, Steven will say something crazy at some point. As well as Tuffcub doing something smutty and Hazelam will do a wall of text.

    Judging by MS’s habit of buying timed stuff and not investing in developing their own exclusive IP, i find it very hard to believe that they will outsell Sony’s console as Sony focused on developing exclusive stuff for the past few years and due to that, the PS3 outsold the 360. Plus, we know virtually nothing about the Durango(pronounced Urango as the D is silent) so it’s too early to say that it will be the best selling console of next gen.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:17.
  7. jimmy-google
    Member
    Since: Feb 2009

    In the its a real possibility but Microsoft haven’t even down anything. If both rumours that second hand games will be blocked and you’ll always need to be online are true then that will hurt MS but they could be false.

    Its far far too early to make predictions like that.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:21.
  8. Eldur
    Member
    Since: Nov 2012

    ‘Pachter thinks we’ve seen the last publisher bankruptcy for a while’.

    Somebody tell Majesco their troubles are over!

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:21.
  9. The Von Braun
    Member
    Since: Oct 2012

    Win how exactly? MS has never had the sales for either Xbox or the 360 in Japan, so on a global scale, who’s playing catch up to who and just where exactly?.

    The PC as a gaming device will make a come back? errm, are the likes of PS4/Xbox next just really PC’s optimised for gaming etc, just using chipsets for most effective way to get power-price ratio?, plus i’ve only to look at news stories for 2 high profile PC games over past few days (Tomb Raider+Sim City) to see exactly the sort of issues that made me give up on PC gaming in the 1st place.

    Personally i don’t give a camels backside who sells the most units in which areas, in shortest time, as long as BOTH Sony+MS exist and provide a decent level of competition in the market place, jobs a good ‘un.

    IF TV Tuner+Skype are seen as the ‘Killer-Apps’ on a platform, where do i sign up to be on the loosing side?, i’m looking for the games, not stuff that exists on countless other platforms already.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:36.
  10. Adam Garrett
    Community Manager
    Since: Feb 2009

    Ignoring him stating the obvious and trying to predict “winners” the Skype app thing would be hugely useful, I want to play a game properly while communicating with my friends not just running around the battlefield like a headless chicken and then sending them a text after saying “that was fun”. I guess with it being owned by Microsoft though that we wont see it on PS4, which leaves me hoping that PlayStation can finally get out of the 1990’s and come up with a decent way to talk with each other that isn’t just a botch job.

    Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:36.
    • FoxHoundGabe
      Member
      Since: Mar 2010

      “I want to play a game properly while communicating with my friends”

      Xbox Live?

      You dont need skype for that.

      Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 11:53.
      • Adam Garrett
        Community Manager
        Since: Feb 2009

        Being on Xbox Live requires you to be on the Xbox. I want to be able to contact someone on Skype who might be on a PC game to maybe invite them over for a game on the console. Console communication platforms are still very closed in comparison to applications such as Skype.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:10.
      • bunimomike
        Member
        Since: Jul 2009

        Ooo, that’s an interesting point. Cross-platform chat. Not sure how truly desired that is, by the masses, but fascinating nonetheless. Count me in. Saves using Skype on the PC all of the bloody time (which is fine until you hit the consoles).

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 13:15.
    • yiddo
      Member
      Since: Jun 2010

      Isn’t that what headsets are for? Skype is not as killer an app as Pachter is making it out to be. I’m no analyst, but I can safely state right here, right now, that the 720 will not be selling by the bucketloads because of a Skype application.

      Regardless, it would have a few neat little features, but that’s all it is, neat little features. Also PS4 will have cross game chat (finally…) so it shouldn’t be a botch job.

      Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:00.
      • Adam Garrett
        Community Manager
        Since: Feb 2009

        No, not a killer app, but it would be useful. No point having cross game chat if the quality is going to be 5% of their competitors like it is currently. It’s an area where Sony fail so badly so hopefully they improve for the PS4.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:06.
      • yiddo
        Member
        Since: Jun 2010

        But they shouldn’t get cross game chat wrong really. Also, even though Skype is owned by Microsoft, Sony could possibly try and implement Facebook more or another platform. Considering that the PS4 is all about connecting and sharing, and one of those connected sites is Facebook (who have a video chat feature) who’s to say Sony won’t strike a video chat deal with Facebook? Together they could try and make it as a competitor to Skype, in which Facebook would have the huge advantage of having a much bigger and connected userbase.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:16.
      • chibber
        Member
        Since: May 2009

        Have to say that this image has made me think the PS4 may do cross game/device video/audio chat:

        http://images.eurogamer.net/2013/articles//a/1/5/6/0/1/8/7/PlayStation_4_2013_02_27_13_007.jpg.jpg

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:21.
      • jimmy-google
        Member
        Since: Feb 2009

        I’m sure the press conference showed the PS4 connecting to others in chat using their mobiles and tablets. They were very keen to show the social and vastly connected aspects of the console.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:27.
      • KeRaSh
        Member
        Since: Nov 2009

        Please, everything BUT a deep Facebook integration. I’d rather have non cross game morse chat than having to use a Facebook account to contact someone on my friend list…

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 12:27.
      • yiddo
        Member
        Since: Jun 2010

        I didn’t say that you’d have to go through Facebook to contact someone on your list. What I meant was where you could video chat from your PS4 (through a Facebook video chat feature) to somebody who is on Facebook on a video chat enabled device, such as a smart phone, tablet, PC etc. It would open up the whole connectivity aspect, more so than what Sony seem to be doing by just letting friends view streams on their devices. It would literally become a competitor to Skype – with an already larger install base, so a better platform to start from, and Facebook themselves could then do it so that you can video chat from your tablet to PC, smartphone to tablet etc.

        I’m saying, if Skype was to become quite a ‘killer app’ (it won’t be) then Sony could always have ways to combat it. Not like it will ever even come to that.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 13:39.
      • KeRaSh
        Member
        Since: Nov 2009

        That’s how I understood it and I don’t like it. :P

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 14:10.
      • yiddo
        Member
        Since: Jun 2010

        Well you understood it wrong :)
        PSN friends
        Facebook friends

        They would be different.

        Comment posted on 11/03/2013 at 15:19.

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