The last three consoles to be released have been launch window failures. That’s an oversimplification, of course, success and failure are difficult to quantify and judging too early in a console’s life is foolish. But the 3DS, PS Vita and Wii U have all had some form of struggle in the early stages of their availability. So how can the PlayStation 4, and next Xbox, avoid making similar mistakes?
The 3DS, it could be argued, suffered a little bit of brand confusion. plenty of less well-informed customers assumed it was just another iteration in the DS line – like a DSLite or a DSi. A different name could have helped there but it’s also possible to argue that the iteration in nomenclature for the Game Boy series (Colour, Advance, etc.) didn’t harm that device.
I think this problem (and it appeared again with the Wii U) is more a case of shifting public expectations. The iterative approach to hardware releases that has been adopted by Apple and every other smartphone manufacturer in recent years means that the public is now well used to a situation whereby the iPhone 5 still basically works like an iPhone 4. [drop]The device number doesn’t mean too much for a year or two so there’s no pressing urgency to upgrade for the vast majority of users (aside from gadget lust…).
The area in which this issue is most likely to rear its head for next-gen consoles is with backward-compatibility and, perhaps more pressingly, with the migration of our digital libraries. Many of us will expect our current games to work on any new console we buy and we’ll also want some way to transfer our PSN or XBLA purchases onto the hard disk (we assume there’ll still be hard disks!) of our shiny new consoles.
If Sony and Microsoft can assure early adopters that their existing libraries will be transferrable, that’s got to be a bonus. If they can launch their new consoles and have that plentiful selection of downloadable games all ready to buy and play on it, that will be even better for the marketing campaigns leading up to launch. Nintendo’s recent attempts to circumnavigate this issue by charging a small fee for repurchasing Virtual Console games (albeit with updated features) on a Wii U is certainly not ideal, although Sony and Microsoft are sure to be looking on keenly to see how successful that scheme is with customers.
The 3DS was also too expensive when it launched, Nintendo’s subsequent slashing of the price and apology (free Virtual Console games) to early adopters acknowledges that. That’s something that Sony apparently didn’t learn from when they launched the Vita (which is surely due a sales-invigorating price cut by now?) and it could be argued that cost has been a factor in the Wii U’s less than impressive start.
It’s going to be very difficult for the new consoles to keep prices down while still offering a hardware package that shows a significant and easily noticeable boost on this generation’s performances. Consumers are likely to be more careful with their disposable income in the current economy but they’ll also be comparing pricing to those subsidised smartphone deals they see. A brand new iPhone is free, if you sign up to a contract, so why should a PlayStation 4 cost £400? To those of us who are better informed, the answers are obvious but to the vast majority of consumers? They’ll just see a price ticket that represents a significant outlay for most.
[drop2]Surely both Sony and Microsoft must learn from the 3DS’ price cut, as well as the Vita and Wii U’s slow starts, and do all they can to keep consumer costs low. A successful launch period and the confidence that instils in third parties is imperative to keeping momentum throughout the first year of sales and avoiding the problem we’ve seen with some third party publishers showing a lack of enthusiasm for a system, in spite of previous endorsements (BioShock Vita, Rayman Legends, even GTA V Wii U?).One possible way around this is to subsidise console sales. In a similar way to smartphone sales being propped up by their lengthy contracts, consoles could be offered with similar subscriptions. Buy a PlayStation 4 for £100 if you sign up to a 2 year contract with Gaikai streaming and PSPlus for £15 per month – a total purchase price of £480 but spread over 2 years. That idea might be a little far fetched, given the infrastructure that would need to be established to make it work (credit agencies, administration centres, etc.) but it would make for a much more attractive initial proposition for many consumers and that could translate to a vastly more healthy install base to tempt third party publishers and further invigorate ongoing sales.
Of course, it’s possible that new consoles will fully justify their launch price and that marketing teams will do an exemplary job of presenting the new machines to a potential customer base which has more access to information than ever before. Perhaps everything will fall into place for new launches and perhaps the companies involved have already learned from perceived mistakes of the past.
Hopefully we’ll start to see some details about new consoles soon and we’ll be able to make our own minds up about how much we’re willing to pay for them and how easy they are to differentiate from existing machines. Time will tell and we’re all hoping for an exciting product reveal and launch window but there are new challenges to face this time around and the ways in which both companies address those challenges may well be the deciding factor in how successful the new generation of consoles will be.
Darth Newdar
I think that traditional console gaming has seen its high water mark, and is now a shrinking market. Nevertheless, there is always going to be a profitable market for ‘full experience’ video games played at home. I think that Orbis and Durango will be much more successful than the 3DS and Vita – smartphones have now replaced the need for a dedicated gaming console. Call of Duty, though, cannot be replicated (for the moment) on anything other than a console/PC setup. So, I predict sales will be down compared to PS3/Xbox 360, but won’t be as bad as Vita and 3DS.
MNorris1983
You clearly don’t have a clue at all, do you “Darth Newdar”? Smartphones have replaced the need for a dedicated console? What a crock of shit! Every time I watch / read a review of a phone and the reviewer gives a section on gaming, I sit there and think “what the hell are you going on about? Stupid little Android / iOS games? Do me a favour” It’s clearly a joke, mobile phones should NOT be used for playing games on AT ANY TIME over a console, because frankly phones are phones, consoles are consoles. Okay fair enough this is all just my opinion, but there isn’t a hope in hell I would ever use my (Android) phone for ANY gaming whatsoever!
Paranoimia
It would help if the audience stopped being so fickle. PS Vita price was given when it was announced and everyone cheered. Then when it was released, everyone whined about it being too expensive.
PS3 was “expensive” but also a bargain at £425 for what you got. Vita is also a bargain. Baffles me that people complain about Vita being “expensive”, but spend 2 to 3 times that on a phone to play inferior Android/iOS games. Sony can charge up to £500 for the PS4 and I’ll buy. No, I’m not particularly rich, I just figure it’ll be worth every penny.
coruscant
I agree. It’s half the price of a top-end smartphone, and can do all the things such a device can but also play console-quality games on it. I absolutely love my Vita and although I recognise that for some it may seem expensive, but when you look at comparable products it’s actually a bargin. Not to mention being an all-round great system.
skibadee
I agree as well people seem to want things for nothing these days.
xdarkmagician
I don’t remember “everyone” cheering, but I do remember people moaning when they mentioned the vita was going to partner with AT&T for 3G service.
Its not fair to compare the vita to an i-phone. i-phones do SOO much more. plus in this day and age everybody should have a cell phone, at least people above a certain age. Just because the gaming experience on a vita is better than an iOS phone doesn’t mean the vita is the better purchase. Phones are necessities, handheld gaming devices are luxuries. When you start adding features and prices to a necessity its easier for people to justify the additional price, they feel as if you need it anyways you might as well get the best one. Luxuries on the other hand always seem overpriced, its only when people get an increase in cash or the luxury drops in price when someone is likely to buy it.
The PS3 included a blu-ray player, so it was a bargain, but only if you were interested in buying a blu-ray. If you didn’t care about blu-ray and just wanted to play games then for that person, it was overpriced. Its not about what a product can do that determines its worth but what someone expects it to do.
Roynaldo
I see the article has a lot of concentration aimed at the digital side of the coin… I fear for this in the future of console gaming, especially with the prices in which publishers are putting them up for.
/IF/ the next gen becomes a digital only base then i’m out. Quite simply because my internet cant hold up more than 2Mb at the best of times (often a fraction of that) and the pricing of such things would tear my wallet right up. I couldnt bare it if they decided to stream games too. OH THE HORROR!
CR8ZYH0RSE
Stop giving out day one patches,you sell a game for £45 i expect it to be playable day one no glitches,freezing or picture tearing.These publishers like to moan about pre-owned games and how it’s theft but they release broken games and expect you to buy it day one.Is it any wonder people buy pre-owned rather than buy from day one.
Also i’d like to see how scee will sort it’self out,as this gen has been a bloody poor show.
Kaminari
I won’t even touch a PS4 or an XBox 3 for at least two years. The launching titles are traditionally shite, prices are through the roof, and promises are kept unfulfilled (Killzone 2 released three years after its infamous presentation, The Last Guardian released… no, wait).
Hype alone doesn’t make a console. The really good stuff won’t come out before 2015/2016, and that’s a conservative figure.